Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models          下载免费PDF全文

Elena Sava  Charles Twardy  Robert Koester  Mukul Sonwalkar 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(1):38-53

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).  相似文献   

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling     

Elena Polyakova  Mikhail Gofarov  Yuriy Kutinov  Vladimir Beljaev  Zinaida Chistova  Nikolay Neverov  Vadim Staritsyn  Alexandr Mineev  Sergey Durynin 《山地科学学报》2016,13(4):569-580

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.  相似文献   

The Juchatengo complex: an upper-level ophiolite assemblage of late Paleozoic age in Oaxaca,southern Mexico     

Grajales-Nishimura  José Manuel  Ramos-Arias  Mario Alfredo  Solari  Luigi  Murillo-Muñetón  Gustavo  Centeno-García  Elena  Schaaf  Peter  Torres-Vargas  Ricardo 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(3):1005-1031

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Juchatengo complex (JC) suite is located between the Proterozoic Oaxacan complex to the north and the Xolapa complex to the south, and was amalgamated...  相似文献   

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer     

Elena Tamayo-Mas  Marco Bianchi  Majdi Mansour 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1917-1933

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.  相似文献   

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems     

Lo Russo  Stefano  Taddia  Glenda  Cerino Abdin  Elena 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(4):1239-1247

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.

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Assessment of the acid drainage neutralization capacity and the toxic metals lixiviation of tailing from Guanajuato mining district,Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

María Elena García-Arreola  Luisa María Flores-Vélez  Marcos Loredo-Tovías  Alfredo Aguillón-Robles  Rubén Alfonso López-Doncel  Irene Cano-Rodríguez  Sonia Hortensia Soriano-Pérez 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(9):355

In Mexico, many environmental problems are generated by large mining activities taking place in several mining districts. These mining activities produce great quantities of residues; large majorities of these have high sulfur content, which could generate acid drainage due to their interaction with the oxygen in the environment. The study area was located in the Mining District of Guanajuato, Mexico with abandoned tailings generated mainly by the gold and silver production. Two areas, called as Monte de San Nicolás (SN) and Peregrina (P) were selected for this study. The results study shows that there was no risk of production of acid drainage, since these tailings contained high amount of carbonates, which neutralized the generation of acidity and consequently decreased the possibility of leaching of some elements. However, not all elements leach in acid pH, as arsenic bound to oxyhydroxides, which is in a basic environment and its increased release by increasing the pH.  相似文献   

Magma evolution beneath Bequia,Lesser Antilles,deduced from petrology of lavas and plutonic xenoliths   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michal?Camejo-HarryEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Elena?Melekhova  Jon?Blundy  William?Attridge  Richard?Robertson  Thomas?Christopher 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(10):77

Extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks represent different parts of a magmatic system and ultimately provide complementary information about the processes operating beneath volcanoes. To shed light on such processes, we have examined and quantified the textures and mineral compositions of plutonic and cumulate xenoliths and lavas from Bequia, Lesser Antilles arc. Both suites contain assemblages of iddingsitized olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and spinel with rare orthopyroxene and ilmenite. Mineral zoning is widespread, but more protracted in lavas than xenoliths. Plagioclase cores and olivine have high anorthite (An?≤?98) and low forsterite (Fo?≤?84) compositions respectively, implying crystallisation from a hydrous mafic melt that was already fractionated. Xenolith textures range from adcumulate to orthocumulate with variable mineral crystallisation sequences. Textural criteria are used to organize the xenoliths into six groups. Amphibole, notably absent from lavas, is a common feature of xenoliths, together with minor biotite and apatite. Bulk compositions of xenoliths deviate from the liquid line of descent of lavas supporting a cumulate origin with varying degrees of reactive infiltration by evolved hydrous melts, preserved as melt inclusions in xenolith crystals. Volatile saturation pressures in melt inclusions indicate cumulate crystallization over a 162–571 MPa pressure range under conditions of high dissolved water contents (up to 7.8 wt% H₂O), consistent with a variety of other thermobarometric estimates. Phase assemblages of xenoliths are consistent with published experimental data on volatile-saturated low-magnesium and high-alumina basalts and basaltic andesite from the Lesser Antilles at pressures of 200–1000 MPa, temperatures of 950–1050 °C and dissolved H₂O contents of 4–7 wt%. Once extracted from mid-crustal mushes, residual melts ascend to higher levels and undergo H₂O-saturated crystallization in shallow, pre-eruptive reservoirs to form phenocrysts and glomerocrysts. The absence of amphibole from lavas reflects instability at low pressures, whereas its abundance in xenoliths testifies to its importance in mid-crustal differentiation processes. A complex, vertically extensive (6 to at least 21 km depth) magmatic system is inferred beneath Bequia. Xenoliths represent fragments of the mush incorporated into ascending magmas. The widespread occurrence of evolved melts in the mush, but the absence of erupted evolved magmas, in contrast to islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, may reflect the relative immaturity of the Bequia magmatic system.  相似文献   

Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation     

Ramzi Touchan  Elena Xoplaki  Gary Funkhouser  Jürg Luterbacher  Malcolm K. Hughes  Nesat Erkan  Ünal Akkemik  Jean Stephan 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(1):75-98

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.  相似文献   

Response of littoral chironomid communities and organic matter to late glacial lake—level,vegetation and climate changes at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany,Italy)     

Laurent Millet  Boris Vannière  Valérie Verneaux  Michel Magny  Jean Robert Disnar  Fatima Laggoun-Défarge  Anne Véronique Walter-Simonnet  Gilles Bossuet  Elena Ortu  Jacques-Louis de Beaulieu 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,38(4):525-539

This study focuses on the response of lacustrine littoral chironomid communities to late glacial changes in limnological, environmental and climate conditions in the Mediterranean context. Late glacial chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry were analysed in a sediment core from the littoral zone of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy), where the lake-level fluctuations and the vegetation history have been previously reconstructed. Comparison of the chironomid stratigraphy to other proxies (pollen assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry, lake-level) and regional climate reconstruction suggested the predominant influence of lake-level changes on the littoral chironomid fauna. The main lowering events that occurred during the Oldest and the Younger Dryas were followed by higher proportions of taxa typical of littoral habitats. A complementary study of organic matter suggested the indirect impact of lake-level on the chironomids through changes in humic status and habitat characteristics, such as the type of substrate and aquatic macrophyte development. Several chironomid taxa, such as Glyptotendipes, Microtendipes and Cricotopus type patens, were identified as possible indicators of low lake-level in the late glacial records. Nevertheless, this study suggested that parallel analyses of organic matter and chironomid assemblages may be needed to circumvent misinterpretation of littoral chironomid assemblage stratigraphy. There was a weak response of the chironomid assemblages to small lake-level lowerings that corresponded to the Older Dryas and Preboreal oscillations. A higher level of determination, e.g. to the species group level, may be necessary to increase the sensibility of the indicators to lake-level changes.  相似文献   

Response of alpine chironomid communities (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia) to atmospheric contamination   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Boris Ilyashuk  Elena Ilyashuk 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2001,25(4):467-475

A short sediment core from the deepest part of an alpine lake (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia), covering about the past 200 yrs of sediment accumulation, was analysed for chironomid head capsule remains. The lake has been receiving acidic precipitation and heavy metals loading from the atmosphere since the 1940's. A total of 22 chironomid taxa were recorded. The most important taxa were typical elements of oligotrophic lakes, i.e.Micropsectra insignilobus, Paratanytarsus penicillatus, Stictochironomus spp. and Heterotrissocladius marcidus. Based on the cluster analyses results for the reconstructed environmental variables and chironomid communities, three developmental stages were distinguished from the lake history: (1) Natural ontogeny stage (before ~1945); (2) Initial stage of anthropogenic ontogeny (~1945-~1982); and (3) Anthropogenic ontogeny stage (~1982-~1996). During the first period, the changes in the chironomid fauna were characterized as an anthropogenically undisturbed community, with M. insignilobus dominating (46-66%). The changes during the second period reflected the initial phase of anthropogenic succession associated with the beginning of acidification and heavy metal pollution. The main species showed opposite distributional patterns in this period; the abundance of the group M. insignilobus/Stictochironomus spp. decreased, whereas the abundance of P. penicillatus/H. marcidus increased. The third period was characterized by a major shift in the faunal assemblages, from M. insignilobus to other dominant species including P. penicillatus (19-30%). The increases of Orthocladiinae relative abundance and total organic content in the uppermost sediment layers may be explained by a decrease in lake productivity. The decreases of cold-stenothermal taxa Stictochironomus spp. and M. insignilobus in the uppermost sediment layers can be explained by the global warming during the 20th century. The lake ecosystem is likely to be affected by both inputs of airborne contaminants and climate changes.  相似文献